Horse Racing

Inside mail: Big bets and bookies’ verdict

TRAINER Joe Pride is confident Brook Magic has recovered from a recent setback and is primed for the Chandon S Sprint (1000m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Brook Magic was scheduled to resume racing earlier this month but was found to have a slightly elevated temperature and Pride decided to wait until Saturday’s race.

“She had a little temperature two weeks ago but got over it very quickly,’’ Pride said. “I saved her for this race and it does set up well for her. The small field and soft track suits her.’’

Pride also has the tough Chapelco lining up in the Heineken 3 Handicap (1400m).

“Chapelco is a big, strong boy, he’s a bold front-running type who busts up a field with his speed and gets the others off the bit chasing him,’’ Pride said.

Joe Pride is expecting an improved run by Brook Magic at Randwick. Picture: AAPSource:AAP

Fifteen Rounds failed in the Brian Crowley Stakes last week but Pride is expected a much improved showing in the 2019 Membership Handicap (1400m0.

“He didn’t compete on that really wet track,’’ Pride said. “I feel like we still have a horse to work with and if the track continues to improve he can run well.’’

Pride wasn’t quite as optimistic about Gambletown’s chances in the Cellarbrations Handicap (2000m) describing the gelding as a “frustrating horse’’.

THE BARRIERS

The best winning barriers at Royal Randwick for the last three years.

(In order of most wins)

1000m: 2,6,3,4

1200m: 6,3,1,5

1400m: 4,2,1,7

1800m: 1,5,4,3

2000m: 5,4,1,6

TAB BIG BETS

Race 1: Evalina $4.60-$4 with bets of $400 at $4.60, $1,000 at $4

Race 2: Stella Victoria $1.90-$2, Sexy Eyes $6-$4.40-$3.80 with bets of $500 at $6, $430 at $5.50, $250 at $5.

Race 4: Sambro $2.80-$3.20-$3.10 with bets of $500 at $3.20, $200 at $3.10 three times, Just Dreaming $2.60-$2.20 with bets of $400 at $2.60, $605 at $2.50, $1,500 at $2.30, $1,000 at $2.20.

Race 5: Zourkhan $2.80-$2.70 with bets of $600 at $2.80, $500 at $2.80, $450 at $2.80, Nettoyer $11-$12 with bets of $200 e/w at $12/$3, $200 at $12, Zofonic Dancer $8-$7.50 with a $900 bet at $7.50.

Race 6: Single Bullet $13-$11 with bets of $2,000 at $11, $800 at $11, $200/$300 e/w at $11/$2.90

Race 9: Powerline $11-$14-$13 with bets of $1,000/$2,000 e/w at $14/$3.80, Kawaikini $11-$7.50 with bets of $200 at $11, $300 a $9, $400 at $7.50

Single Bullet has had support to regain his winning touch on Saturday. Picture: AAPSource:AAP

EARLY QUADDIE

Race 2: 1,2,3,4

Race 3: 2,6,7,9

Race 4: 2,3,5

Race 5: 2,3,8

Suggested bet: $20

Bet percentage: 10.41%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1,3,5

Race 7: 1,2,7,8

Race 8: 3,6,7,9

Race 9: 3,8,12

Suggested bet $20

Bet percentage: 10.41%

PRICE CHECK

Single Bullet (race 6) has been kept fresh since he finished just behind the placegetters in the Trekking race at Randwick six weeks ago. He’s a talented horse on his day, although his win strike-rate of one from 15 is hardly flattering. He will be ridden a stalking race in this 1000m sprint and expect him to be charging home at near double figure odds.

TRIAL POINTERS

Kawaikini (race 9) was scratched from Friday night’s Evening Star at Canterbury due to a wide gate. Trainer Jason Coyle would no doubt feel much more comfortable with barrier four on Saturday. The daughter of All American is unbeaten in all three first-up runs and is a track/distance winner to boot. Kawaikini has been extremely impressive on her two trials this month, the first one an unhurried three-lengths fifth to subsequent stakes-winner I Like It Easy, the most recent one a similarly ‘easy’ placing to Mister Sea Wolf.

Chaussure (race 7) is first-up for almost two years and resumes as a gelding. The Chris Waller-trained, Debbie Keptitis-owned son of Cox Plate runner-up Jimmy Choux was beaten narrowly on debut then came out and won his next and only two runs of the following campaign. Clearly he has had a major issue that has sidelined him for such an extended period but his two trials have been encouraging to say the least. Market watch advised.’’

Boo Bailey’s cartoon tip for RandwickSource:Supplied

WORK WHISPERS

Sambro (race 4) lines-up in the Filante Handicap, a race named in recognition of the two-time Cox Plate runner-up for Geoff and Beryl White. Sambro has won twice at the 1400m, one of them was in the Group 2 Queensland Guineas, the other was the Group 3 Hawkesbury Guineas. Sambro has turned in two solid runs this time in and wasn’t beaten far in the Cameron on September 14. Chris Waller kept the son of Fastnet Rock ticking over with an “easy” trial at Randwick nine days ago. Sambro worked over 1000m on Tuesday timed in 1:11.5s quickening up appreciably over the last 400m in 24.5s.

Zourkhan (race 5) is another of the Chris Waller-trained string that has strong winning prospects at Randwick. In fact, Zourkhan is aiming for his third straight victory having won at Rosehill and at Randwick by a combined margin of nearly four lengths. This Irish-bred son of Shamardal worked on the Pro Ride at Rosehill last Saturday timed over 1000m in 1:10.2s with a final 400m in 24.70s. No reason why he can’t bag his hat trick.

THE BEST BET

Just Dreaming (race 4) is a talented mare who resumed with a solid third behind Doubt Defying on a heavy track at Randwick two weeks ago. Significantly, she has never won in five previous comeback efforts but her second-up record is almost perfect – four starts for three wins and a second. Just Dreaming gets in well at the weights and is suited by the soft track.

BEST VALUE

Velaro (race 3) didn’t have a lot of luck in the Highway over 1400m last start, enduring a wide run then running out of galloping room in the straight when sixth to Tristan Angel. He is fitter for two runs back from a spell and third-up last campaign he romped home at Wellington. Ready to get out to 1800m and is good each way value.

Winx – Beyond compare2:15

Science behind Winx’s dominance

THE JUDGMENT

MOONEE VALLEY

R9: W S COX PLATE (2040m)

Saeed Bin Suroor (trainer) Benbatl: “I have a lot of respect for the filly (Winx), she is a superstar and the best in Australian history but my horse is really good, he has worked well and is in good form.’’

Sally Snow (TAB): “The anticipation is unheralded as Winx, the superstar of the turf, aims for her fourth Cox Plate. The atmosphere will be something special as the nation tunes in to the nation’s premier weight for age contest. The UK import Benbatl has been the only runner supported outside this mighty mare and he is the dominant $2.50 favourite in our special ‘Winx out’ market.’’

Glenn Munsie (TAB): “Seriously, what is left to write about this great mare? As I have said at her last couple of runs, I believe she is going better than ever and lengths in front of where she was going into last year’s race when she broke the track/race record. Sit back and enjoy with Chris Waller gaining the quinella with D’Argento pinching ground along the fence throughout.’’

Grant Palmer (bookie): “What an absolute privilege to watch the great mare line up in her fourth Cox Plate. She has attracted a lot of interest at the $1.22 quote with the punters telling me she is better than bank interest.’’

Blake Johnston (bookie): “Winx is obviously the one to beat. She ran freak sectionals to win the Turnbull but we know she can do that. Benbatl is the quinella horse, he was great winning the Caulfield Stakes.’’

Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “I’m really hoping this is a Cox Plate for ‘the ages’ for all the right reasons. Tactically I would love the import Benbatl to race six lengths clear, then stand and cheer as Winx mows him down to race into “equine immortality”.

Verdict: WINX

Winx is primed to win her fourth Cox Plate at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

R8: MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP (2500m)

Chris Waller (trainer) Who Shot Thebarman, Patrick Erin, Egg Tart, Libran: “This is a stronger race than what Who Shot Thebarman won last year but nonetheless it is a good yard stick as to where he might be heading. Libran has been very been very good this preparation but he has been plagued by bad draws — finally he has a good gate. Egg Tart is well, her work has been good and from the good draw she should get a soft run but there is still a question mark over her staying ability. Unfortunately, Patrick Erin hasn’t drawn very well – I tis either here from the wide draw or wait until the Bendigo Cup on Wednesday.’’

Sally Snow (TAB): “This looks a cracking contest on paper and we expect the majority of the field to be met with support at some stage during betting. The Taj Mahal was set an impossible task in the Caulfield Cup yet went enormous, and will again give his supporters a big sight here where he has raced well previously. Look for a positive ride from the draw and he will be hard to run down on the quick back up.’’

Glenn Munsie (TAB): “I’m quite keen on Libran, who finally draws a barrier inside for the first time in six runs. I think all of his runs this time in have been very good as he has had to get a long way back in all of them because of very wide draws. No surprise to see Hughie Bowman more positive here and remember that he ran second in this last year off a very similar preparation.’’

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Nakeeta won the Ebor last year and then ran fifth in the Melbourne Cup so we know he can stay. His form hasn’t been as good this time around but this is not a star studded line up and he looks worth a punt at the double-figure odds.’’

Blake Johnston (bookie): “Libran looks suited here at the weight scale and he ran second in this race last year coming from the back in a slowly run race. He will get back again today but the larger field should ensure a better tempo.’’

Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “I’ve always had a decent opinion of Lord Fandango, he’s set to peak after impressing first-up before clocking good sectionals in the Herbert Power last start. Always wary of Libran producing a peak performance.’’

Verdict: LIBRAN

ROYAL RANDWICK

R6: CHANDON S SPRINT (1000m)

Gary Portelli (trainer) Single Bullet: “We have kept him mad fresh, it is only 1000m and we are trying something different by not trialling him before the race. I hope he can sit off them and finish strongly.’’

Sally Snow (TAB): “Sedition went really well for the new stable last preparation and looks a live chance here first-up. He gets a lovely run from the draw for the in-form Josh Parr and the sting out of the track is ideal. The each way odds available appeal.’’

Glenn Munsie (TAB): “Speed to burn here and happy to see Jason Collett on Brook Magic taking the easy way out from barrier 1 and bide his time as speed horses cross from outside. Scratched her recently and set to resume in this. Good 1000m form with three of her career wins at that distance. Leogang the danger but needs luck from draw.’’

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Single Bullet still only has the one win to his name but has mixed it up with some good types. Has had a freshen for this and has been crying out for a 1000m race. Maps to get a good run and is a good each way price.’’

Blake Johnston (bookie): “Beacon looks hard to beat here after his first-up effort in which he peaked on his run. He’ll be much better suited second up on firmer ground.’’

Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “There should be good pace here with Brook Magic likely to push forward, which allows Tommy Berry on Single Bullet to settle midfield. He’s only had the one win but this is a drop in class and he should power home.’’

Verdict: SINGLE BULLET

Originally published as Inside mail: Big bets and bookies’ verdict


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