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Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 – 12pm: KELLY + PARTNERS WESTERN SYDNEY CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1600m)
1. Adjourn profiles well for this event and is ready to peak third-up. He was restrained last start from a wide draw and wasn’t suited to getting too far back in a moderate tempo. To his credit, he built through his gears and made significant ground, clocking one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. The Kris Lees galloper receives a much more positive race setup where he can settle closer, and all key indicators suggest he is set to improve. Hard to hold out with even luck.
Gosford will host the NSW feature meeting on Thursday.Credit: Getty Images
Dangers: 2. Pacific Warrior has multiple winning figures for this assignment and drops in grade. He is rock-hard fit, maps well, and Josh Parr sticks. 4. Lichester is still relatively lightly raced and finally strikes a dry track. The blinkers go on for the first time, and 1600m suits. 7. Thailand hasn’t won in a long time but has been racing honestly.
How to play it: Adjourn WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 2 – 12:35pm: KELLY + PARTNERS PRIVATE WEALTH CENTRAL COAST 2&3YO MAIDEN HANDICAP (1600m)
4. Commando Jack was 36 days between runs last start at Wyong and was heavily backed $4-$3 late in the trade. However, the three-year-old had multiple factors against; he was slow away, back in distance and wasn’t suited to the farcical tempo. Moreover, he was mathematically out of the race but hit the line hard to finish fourth, running one of the meeting’s fastest final 200m splits. He can roll forward and the dry track suits.
Dangers: 8. Unowho was honest on debut at Kensington after being outpaced when the sprint went on but kept building to the line. He will have benefited from that race experience, and the rise in distance is ideal. 3. The Professor can settle closer with a significant barrier change and 9. Dawla is rock-hard fit with the blinkers going on for the first time. Add 6. Never Bird to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Commando Jack WIN. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 3 – 1:10pm: BISHOP COLLINS 3YO MAIDEN HANDICAP (1000m)
2. Divots who resumes showed speed in a recent trial at Canterbury and went through the line not extended. Forgiving of her first preparation, where she wasn’t suited on rain-affected ground at the metropolitan level and raced below market expectations. Expecting the Hawkes galloper to improve significantly here on dry ground, she looks to have returned well. Additionally, she can roll forward and has a tactical map advantage over her main rival.
Dangers: 1. Angel Fund comes through the same trial as Divots and found the line well enough under light riding. Her debut run had merit; she always faced the breeze at a genuine tempo and was honest in defeat. 3. Spiritchaser had every chance first-up at Goulburn but failed on the heavy track. He can bounce back second-up and is a 1000m specialist. 4. Kissing Supido returns and is coming out of time/sectional merit races from last campaign.
How to play it: Divots WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 4 – 1:50pm: KELLY + PARTNERS DUNGOG CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2100m)
5. Mickey’s Pride resumed at Goulburn 16 days ago and was an impressive winner producing a career peak figure. The three-year-old’s win was full of merit after being not suited to the sit/sprint race shape, but he showed an exceptional closing speed to score with the blinkers on for the first time. Further, the late visual dominance was backed up by the clock, with the gelding clocking one of the meeting’s fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. Everything about his ratings/sectional profile suggests he can only step off this performance, and the rise in distance is ideal.
Dangers: Import 3. Our Anchorage battled away OK in his Australian debut over an unsuitable distance. He will be fitter for that, 2100m suits, and Josh Parr rides for the first time. Additionally, he has multiple winning figures and drops in grade. 4. Tiva Bay is rock-hard fit and has been racing consistently this prep, albeit yet to break through for a win. 8. Caring Lass comes out of strong time races and add to wider exotics.
How to play it: Mickey’s Pride WIN. Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 5 – 2:25pm: KELLY + PARTNERS PRIVATE WEALTH SYDNEY PROVINCIAL MAIDEN HANDICAP (1200m)
4. Epicus was well fancied last start at Wyong 14 days ago and looked the winner at the top of the straight, but he struggled to run out a strong 1350m. The gelding brings a consistent rating figure at the distance range of 1200m-1250m throughout his career, and repeating any of those performances will put him in the finish. He brings a fitness edge, will roll forward and gets a race shape to suit.
Dangers: 9. Misty Dreams wasn’t suited first-up but ran on well in a high-rating last section. She has a tricky draw to contend with but expect her to be savaging the line. 3. Harry Tudor is an intriguing runner who has had 253 days off the scene but has had two solid trials leading into this event. He is a key late-market watch. 7. Sidenay has come back improved and will be fitter.
How to play it: Epicus WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 6 – 3:05pm: BENDIGO BANK MAIDEN HANDICAP (1100m)
Leaning towards 2. Tamaroa, who represents value, coming through time/sectional merit races, and brings a fitness edge relative to her key rivals. The three-year-old made a weaving run at Kembla last start after being blocked at critical stages in the straight. Further, he surged to the line running some of the fastest closing splits of the meeting and just missed in a tight finish. The gelding will need luck from the awkward draw but expect him to storm home with the anticipated genuine tempo.
Dangers: Debutant 9. Ozzmosis is a nice type and has won two recent trials in style. The two-year-old is still learning, but the clock has backed up his visual dominance. He sets up well here from barrier one, and its champion jockey James McDonald’s only ride for the day. Expect him to be hard to beat, but he has been well-found in early betting markets. 10. Amrap has trialled well and looks to have improved. She maps to stalk the pace and will be strong late. 4. Getty returns as a gelding and is wound up to run well here. 3. Mr Kennedy will be fitter and add to wider exotics.
How to play it: Tamaroa WIN & Boxed Quinella 2,9,10. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 7 – 3:45pm: KELLY + PARTNERS NORTHERN BEACHES CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1200m)
4. Ringdembells is racing well this campaign and ran time to break through for her maiden win at Kembla last start. She raced wide with cover, was exposed early in the straight, showed a solid turn of foot and held off the late challengers. The three-year-old can build into a more suitable rhythm over 1200m and maps to get an economical run. Brings a competitive last-start figure and can make the step-up in grade.
Dangers: 7. Doubtless Lady was heavily backed late in the trade last start at Wagga, and she hit the line hard to score. She can now go on with it, maps to be smothered away and can have the last shot. Majority of 8. Diamond Blush’s form is on the rain-affected ground but can rate to win. Forget the last start, where she had respiratory issues and is a key late market watch. 1. Rebel Dean is honest and add 3. Twitch to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Ringdembells WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 8 – 4:20pm: KELLY + PARTNERS NORTH SYDNEY MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1000m)
1. Smiling Prophet was honest in the Listed Denise’s Joy Stakes (1100m) at Scone, which rated extremely well relative to the day. The filly was well beaten but raced wide, got too far back, and ran on OK. She is still relatively lightly raced with a consistent record and drops significantly in grade. In addition, she is back to 1000m, which suits, and she gets in well at the weights after the astute claim for in-form apprentice Jasper Franklin.
Dangers: 4. Frilled is a progressive type and ran time when winning at Kembla last start. She has a strong SP profile, brings the best last-start figure, maps to control the race and will take some catching. 7. One Destiny is rock-hard fit and coming off a career peak performance, albeit on heavy ground. Add 9. Nephradiva and 6. Midnight Oasis to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Smiling Prophet WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Best Bet: Race 4 No.5 – Mickey’s Pride
Next Best: Race 1 No.1 – Adjourn
Best Value: Race 8 No.1 – Smiling Prophet
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au
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