MMA

UFC 265 odds, predictions, betting trends for Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane

Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane will battle for the interim heavyweight title at UFC 265 in Houston, Texas with the winner next in line for a shot at the current champion Francis Ngannou. 

Lewis is on a four-fight winning streak with a knockout victory over Curtis Blaydes in his last outing. 

Gane has yet to taste defeat in professional MMA as the powerful Frenchman is coming off of a stellar performance defeating Alexander Volkov by unanimous decision in June.

With two giants in the Octagon, fireworks are almost certain and Sporting News provides some insight on how to bet on the heavyweight clash. 

All odds courtesy of FanDuel

UFC 265 odds for Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane

Although he’s the higher ranked fighter, Derrick Lewis comes in as a significant underdog at +270, meaning that a $100 wager would return a $270 profit if Lewis wins. The undefeated Gane is a -355 favorite. It would take a bet of $355 to see a $100 profit if Gane gets the victory. 

Lewis vs. Gane prop bets

Lewis vs. Gane prediction

It may sound bizarre that Lewis is such a significant underdog despite being the higher ranked of the two fighters and holding a victory over the current champion Francis Ngannou. But the fact of the matter is that Gane has never lost an MMA fight while Lewis has needed to come from behind a few times to put himself in this position. He does have devastating power that has left many opponents wary of engaging, including Ngannou. And that’s truly the only path to victory for The Black Beast. 

As for Gane, he’s demonstrated that he can win in a variety of ways with three knockouts, three submissions and two decisions in his brief MMA career. He’s a sharp striker who is cautious and economical against heavy-handed opponents as he showed against both Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He could take a similar approach against Lewis but it’s truly difficult to pin down his path to victory should you decide to place a wager on the French fighter.  

When heavyweights clash in a five-round main event, the likelihood the fight goes the distance is relatively small. Derrick Lewis has never gone the distance in a five-round fight while Gane has gone 25 minutes twice in his last two fights. 

There are a few things you can eliminate from your options if you’re looking to place a competent bet. Lewis has scored one submission victory in his MMA career and that was back in 2010 when he fought on the regional scene. Although the +3400 line on a submission win sounds tasty, it’s highly unlikely. It’s also unlikely that he’ll win a decision considering that he’s never fought longer than 19 minutes in a fight. When he did, he was extremely exhausted. His only path to picking up a victory is by knockout at +390 and that’s a solid bet. 

Gane is the rightful favorite here because he’s patient enough to pick Lewis apart but possesses enough power to finish the job before the judges can decide who the victor is. He could get a submission as Lewis could collapse due to exhaustion late and be ripe for the taking. At +750 it’s certainly worth a small bet. But considering that Lewis has shown cardio issues in the past, Gane will likely play it safe, use his jab and wait for Lewis to tire himself out when he throws those big looping punches. When that happens, Gane should put Lewis down in the latter half of the fight. There simply isn’t enough value to bet Gane straight up at -355 so putting money down on the stoppage is the best way to go. 

Sporting News Prediction: Gane by (T)KO (+165)

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