NBA draft stat-based projections, and why Scoot Henderson is nowhere near the top

  • Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
  • Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
  • Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system

How do the top prospects in action during the NCAA tournament project statistically? As the college postseason begins in earnest, it’s time for the annual first look at my projections for players in the upcoming NBA draft.

This year’s crop of college prospects has been overshadowed with four of the top five in the top 100 prospects by ESPN’s Jonathan Givony playing elsewhere: Victor Wembanyama in France’s LNB Pro A league, Scoot Henderson in G League Ignite and twins Amen and Ausar Thompson in Overtime Elite.

Still, this looks like a relatively strong group of potential one-and-done prospects from a statistical standpoint. In particular, Alabama’s Brandon Miller has played well enough to merit strong consideration at No. 2 behind Wembanyama.

My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player’s next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ranking in the top 100 for the best consensus projection.

For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.

Note that I do not have projections for the Thompson twins, currently ranked fourth (Amen) and fifth (Ausar), respectively, in the top 10.

1. Victor Wembanyama

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