NFL

NFL odds, picks for Week 8: Advanced computer model loving Cardinals and Steelers

With nearly half the season already gone, there still dozens of NFL teams vying for a playoff spot. In fact, nine of the 14 games this week feature two teams that are a game under .500 or better squaring off. The latest NFL odds board shows lines of all sizes for this critical slate of games. The Bears are eight-point favorites over the Jets at Soldier Field. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has thrown 11 TDs over his last three games and now gets a date with a hobbled New York defense. And out West, the Rams are favored by nine, one of the largest NFL spreads of the week, against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. That line moved as high as 9.5 before falling back. Before you make any Week 8 NFL picks and predictions on these games or any others, you’ll want to see what the advanced computer model at SportsLine has to say about it all.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

It went 10-4 straight up in a wild Week 7, including calling the Patriots’ huge win over the Bears, improving its record to a blistering 71-34 on the season. And when it comes to top-rated picks against the spread, it is now on a strong 57-40 run. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 8 NFL picks are in. 

One of the top Week 8 NFL picks the model loves: the Steelers (-8) cover at home against Baker Mayfield and the Browns.

Le’Veon Bell didn’t return over the bye week as some expected, but the model doesn’t see that slowing a rested Steelers team against a Cleveland squad that has lost three of four.

Ben Roethlisberger throws for over 300 yards, according to the model, while James Conner has 100 yards of total offense as Pittsburgh covers in the spread in almost 55 percent of simulations. The model is also calling for 52 total points, giving plenty of value to the over (49). 

Another one of the Week 8 NFL picks the model is recommending: the Cardinals cover as 1.5-point underdogs at home against the 49ers, winning outright, 23-21. 

Arizona beat the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium just three weeks ago, but the Cardinals lost 45-10 to the Broncos last week as one-point underdogs. That recency bias has helped fuel action on the 49ers after this game opened as a pick’em. However, don’t forget that the 49ers also were just blown out, 39-10, by the undefeated Rams, while the Cardinals are coming off their mini-bye after playing on Thursday Night Football. 

The model is expecting a big day from running back David Johnson coming off extra rest. He approaches 100 yards of total offense with a rushing touchdown, according to the simulations. Arizona covers in 55 percent of simulations and wins outright 55 percent of the time. With 44 projected points, there’s also plenty of value on the Over (41.5), which cashes 53 percent of the time.

The model also has a strong selection for the huge Rams vs. Packers showdown, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get absolutely stunned by an underdog in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 8? And what Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 43)
Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 44)
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-8, 44)
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (+1, 44)
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3, 48.5)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8, 48.5)
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 53.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 54.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (+3, 51)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 41.5)
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (-9, 56.5)
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 53)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+14, 44)

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