NFL

NFL odds, picks for Week 9: Advanced computer model loving Chiefs and Redskins

The second half of the season has officially arrived, and the opening Week 9 NFL odds indicate this week will be loaded with games that will come down to the wire. No team is favored by more than one score, and some of the top games have just a few points of separation. After opening as 1-point underdogs, the Saints are now 1.5-point favorites at home against the unbeaten Rams. The Ravens are 3-point favorites against the Steelers in a huge AFC North matchup, and Seattle is now -1.5, down half a point, in a battle of playoff hopefuls against the Chargers. With plenty of big games on the schedule and lines already moving in some cases, be sure to check out the Week 9 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

The model was a blistering 13-1 straight-up last week. Additionally, it was a strong 6-0 on all top-rated picks in Week 8, including nailing the Redskins (-1) over the Giants and the Seahawks (+3) over the Lions. That perfect mark in Week 8 improved its overall run to 68-43 on all top-rated picks. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 9 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 9 NFL picks the model loves: the Chiefs (-8) cover on the road against the Browns in Cleveland’s first game under interim head coach Gregg Williams.

Cleveland moved on from Hue Jackson this week after a disastrous 3-36-1 run. An interim coach can sometimes galvanize a team, and the initial line has dropped half a point as bettors are considering that possibility. But the model sees a talent disparity too big for Cleveland to cover.

Patrick Mahomes goes off for over 300 yards of total offense against Cleveland’s 28th-ranked defense as Kansas City covers in over 55 percent of simulations. The model is also calling for 54 total points in this matchup, giving plenty of value to the Over 51.5.

Another pick the model loves: The Redskins (-2) get the cover with room to spare at home against the Falcons. 

Washington hasn’t been flashy this season, but gets the job done with efficient play from Alex Smith at quarterback and a stingy defense that gives up under 20 points per game. The model says that unit holds Atlanta’s offense in check as the Redskins cover in almost 60 percent of simulations, while the Over 47.5 also hits almost 60 percent of the time.

The model also has a strong selection for the huge Patriots vs. Packers showdown on Sunday night, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get knocked off by an underdog in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And what Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 46.5)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 50.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (+8, 51.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7, 54)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3, 45)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-2, 47.5)
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+8.5, 37)
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 47.5)
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 60)
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-6.5, 56.5)
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 41)

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