NFL

NFL Week 14 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

Although COVID-19 has forced the NFL to schedule games on almost every day of the week lately, the 2020 regular season somehow still feels like it’s rapidly racing toward the finish line. Playoff battles are intensifying, regular-season byes are in the rear-view mirror, and the majority of the matchups in the remaining four weeks hold significance in one way or another. Often, these are the regular-season games that garner the most attention and therefore draw the largest betting audience. Every bettor wants to find edges, and many feel that late-season playoff pushes provide plenty of them. BetQL works diligently to find those edges, simplifying the research process by providing real-time line movements, value bets of the day, and meaningful team trends.

Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or over/unders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 14, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model.

All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

WEEK 14 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS: 
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys

BetQL’s NFL Best Bet Model lists Cincinnati against the spread as a four-star rating this week. Oddsmakers clearly have less confidence in the Bengals, as they have dogged them ever since QB Joe Burrow went down with season-ending tears of his ACL and MCL. We won’t cast any aspersions about new Bengals’ starter Brandon Allen being anything close to what Burrow proved to be, but we like him getting 3.5 points at home in his third game as the starter.

The Cowboys have been soft as baby food this season. They rank dead last in points allowed and rushing yards allowed. They surrender the second-most passing touchdowns and the third-highest third-down conversion percentage. They also manage just 1.8 sacks per game, tied for fifth worst, and they force the fourth-fewest turnovers. Against such a weak secondary and with two games under his belt with standout receivers Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, Allen should have a much better showing than his previous two performances against the Giants and Dolphins.  

Meanwhile, Las Vegas backing the Cowboys offense seems misguided. Dallas has lost nine of its 12 games this season, and its three wins were by a combined margin of seven points (2.3 per game). Andy Dalton, also trying to fill big shoes ever since Dak Prescott’s broken ankle earlier in the season, has been better as of late, but as a whole, this team still has a plethora of weaknesses, primarily on defense. This D got absolutely gashed for 294 rushing yards by the Ravens in a 34-17 Week 11 romp and embarrassed at home to the Washington Football Team 41-16 in Week 12. Cincinnati has a 3-1 record against the spread as a home underdog this season, and Dallas is a league-worst 1-5 against the spread as an away team. Bet the home ‘dogs +3.5 and treat yourself to a little holiday bonus.

WEEK 14 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts | Start ’em, sit ’em

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week

Pittsburgh Steelers +105 at Buffalo Bills

There’s so many intriguing moneyline picks with big upset value this week: Washington over San Francisco, Denver over Carolina, Las Vegas over Indianapolis, and even the Giants over Arizona all seem tempting. But the best moneyline bet of all the underdogs this week has to be Pittsburgh +105 at Buffalo. The BetQL Best Bet Model agrees, listing it with a three-star confidence rating.  

The 11-1 Steelers just lost their bid at regular-season perfection after Washington delivered the big upset at Heinz Field last week. They will likely be extra motivated for this one, especially against a red-hot Bills team. Buffalo just kicked off a four-game run of prime-time airings with a 34-24 victory over San Francisco, its fifth win in six games. If the Bills win again this week, they would sit within one game of Pittsburgh for the No. 2 seed in the AFC. That No. 2 seed means not having to face the defending-champion Chiefs until the conference championship. 

Quarterback Josh Allen has played marvelously in Buffalo’s high-flying offense, more than likely landing himself in the MVP discussion. But veteran Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, a contender for Comeback Player of the Year after returning from 2019 elbow surgery, knows a little something about resilience. And this Steelers team is tougher on both sides of the ball than Buffalo’s last two foes, a wobbly young Chargers squad and the injury-ravaged 49ers.

In fact, the argument could be made that Pittsburgh matches up perfectly against the Bills. The Steelers surrender the fewest points in the NFL and the second-fewest passing yards. They have allowed the least amount of first downs while ranking first in interceptions and pick-sixes. Buffalo, which has struggled to find consistency in its running game, relies heavily on Allen’s arm, but good defenses have been able to limit the third-year QB’s passing production this season: The Chargers, Patriots, and Chiefs held him to a combined 431 passing yards (143.6 per game).

Pittsburgh is better than all three of those defenses, and it will be hungrier than ever this week. If the Steelers receivers can stop dropping catchable passes and running back James Conner returns to the field after missing two games due to COVID-19, we stand by this pick as the best moneyline ‘dog.

WEEK 14 NFL DFS: Best stacks | Best values | Lineup Builder

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers: OVER 49.5

Both these teams have fizzled a bit offensively over the past few weeks, combining to average just 39.7 points in their past three respective contests. But a game against each other might cure both these squads’ scoring woes, as their defenses have combined to allow an average of 50.3 points in that same three-game span.

Atlanta’s defense has actually improved a little as the season has progressed, but its secondary remains exploitable. The Falcons have allowed 217 passing yards or fewer in each of their past three games, but delve deeper and you’ll see that two of those games were against gimmick-QB maestro Taysom Hill, and one was against the oft-inconsistent Derek Carr. Just four games ago, Atlanta allowed second-year Denver QB Drew Lock to throw for 313 yards (and two scores), the eighth 300-yard passing performance the Falcons have yielded this season.

Aside from the rocky past two weeks, Chargers rookie Justin Herbert has been just as good, if not better, than all three aforementioned QBs. A home game against the Dirty Birds, who rank 30th in both passing yards allowed and opponents’ red-zone touchdown percentage (70 percent), should be just what the doctor ordered for the baby-faced Rookie of the Year candidate.

Similarly, the Chargers injury-plagued defense will be a welcome sight for Matt Ryan and the Falcons. LA gives up the sixth-most points in the NFL and ranks 25th in passing touchdowns allowed. The entire team only has six interceptions all season (fifth fewest), and it just surrendered 45 points to the Patriots last weekend. Most of those 45 points were scored off of LA mistakes, but 45 points is 45 points.

All we’re looking for is 50 combined points here, and the BetQL Best Bet Model puts a four-star rating on that number being reached. The Model actually projects the final score to be closer to 27-24, which will do just fine for the 69 percent of sharp bettors currently putting their money on the OVER. It’s almost 2021 — we might as well embrace a couple poor defenses here and there, especially if they can help make us some holiday bucks.

Good luck, have fun, and Happy Hanukkah!

Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 14 contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!

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