{"id":288161,"date":"2023-08-28T21:49:55","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T21:49:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportslifetale.com\/?p=288161"},"modified":"2023-08-28T21:49:55","modified_gmt":"2023-08-28T21:49:55","slug":"2023-nfl-season-projecting-win-share-leaders-on-offense-quarterbacks-non-qbs-and-defense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportslifetale.com\/nfl\/2023-nfl-season-projecting-win-share-leaders-on-offense-quarterbacks-non-qbs-and-defense\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 NFL season: Projecting win share leaders on offense (quarterbacks + non-QBs) and defense"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inspired by the idea of wins above replacement in baseball and real plus-minus in basketball, I created a metric that measures the contribution of each player, position group and side of the ball for every snap in an NFL season. I call it WIN SHARE to reflect the fact that 11 players are working together on the field for each team at any given time, meaning that the “share” part is a really big factor — and the interconnectedness took a lot of time to model out.<\/p>\n

The metric is built around the number of times a player impacts first downs and touchdowns that lead to wins or losses, either by creating first downs and touchdowns on offense or by preventing them on defense. On-ball impact (like when a wide receiver is targeted directly) and off-ball impact (like when a wide receiver draws coverage away from other players on the field, resulting in a better matchup for someone else) are both measured. Win share adds up all of the positive on- and off-ball plays and subtracts the negative ones in order to help attribute a value to each player and phase of the game, as represented by the number of wins each player is responsible for on an individual level in a given season. Personnel on the field, game situations and matchups are all factored in, to the degree that it’s possible.<\/p>\n

Now the important part: Who will pace the NFL in win share in 2023? Below, you’ll find the top five projected leaders among quarterbacks, non-quarterback offensive players and defensive players, listed with their predicted win shares for the 2023 campaign. And you might be surprised by some of the rankings — I know I<\/em> was.<\/p>\n

Let me know what you think! You can reach me on X at @cfrelund and IG @cynthiafrelund.<\/p>\n

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