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It\u2019s the most wonderful time of the year.<\/p>\n
And with superstars wherever you look, Penrith in ominous touch and Brisbane leading a chasing pack that\u2019s closing fast, we run through each week one finals clash and look at where the biggest contests of the year will be won and lost.<\/p>\n
The recent history: <\/b>Ignore the latest edition – even if last Friday\u2019s 32-22 Storm win was more entertaining than any game missing 20 front-line players should be. But there\u2019s no escaping Melbourne\u2019s dominance over the club they first modelled themselves on. Not since 2009 have the Victorians lost at Suncorp Stadium. More recently, Melbourne have won their last 14 games against Brisbane, and posted at least 40 points in five of the last seven clashes.<\/p>\n
The main man: <\/b>Jahrome Hughes. Criminally underrated and a huge blow if that knee issue is worse than first feared and keeps him out this week. A match-winning performance against Brisbane in May was described by Craig Bellamy as \u201cone of his best ever\u201d and triggered a run of 20 try-assists in 13 games for the Kiwi star. Hughes is developing that most treasured of playmaking qualities – turning it on when his forwards are struggling.<\/p>\n
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Jahrome Hughes: one of the best halves in the game, but seldom spoken of in such terms.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>Getty<\/cite><\/p>\n The stat: <\/b>72. The combined offloads of Payne Haas (42) and Patrick Carrigan (30) this season – more than double any previous year they\u2019ve played together. Haas\u2019s newfound ball-playing has added another point of attack to Brisbane\u2019s game, especially as contests wear on and defenders tire.<\/p>\n The breakdown: <\/b>More than any other final, this one will be won between the ears given the Storm\u2019s stranglehold on Brisbane and big-game experience against a young side. Aside from Adam Reynolds and Kurt Capewell, most of the Broncos finals experience amounts to only that 58-0 thrashing from Parramatta four years ago.<\/p>\n Harry Grant around the ruck and Nelson Asofa-Solomona lurking on an edge have been Melbourne\u2019s key points of difference all season. Ryan Papenhuyzen jumping into the ruck washing machine from the bench is just fruit for the sideboard.<\/p>\n Reynolds has the ability to keep Brisbane afloat with his kicking game if Melbourne gets on top in the middle. And then there\u2019s Reece Walsh.<\/p>\n His speed at the line is unmatched, and when paired with fellow game-breakers Kotoni Staggs, Ezra Mam and Herbie Farnworth against Storm edges that have been shaky all year, any counterpunch could prove devastating.<\/p>\n The recent history: <\/b>Penrith prevailed 18-6 at Magic Round, but it was one of those Warriors efforts – high, smart completion rates, dogged defence – that won admirers. Otherwise, it\u2019s especially grim reading for the Kiwi side. They\u2019re 0-7 against the Panthers since 2019.<\/p>\n The main man: <\/b>Dylan Edwards. A fair argument can be made that he holds this champion Penrith side together even more than Nathan Cleary given his role as defensive coordinator, backfield impact and prowess on the right edge. Leads the NRL for run metres (4704m) and support plays (200), by almost 20 per cent more effort plays than the next best in either category.<\/p>\n The stat: <\/b>4.71. The difference between the 13 points Penrith concede per game, and the NRL\u2019s next best defence – Brisbane\u2019s 17.71. In the NRL era, there\u2019s never been such a large gap between the two stingiest teams without the ball.<\/p>\n The breakdown: <\/b>Andrew Webster has taken more than a hint of Penrith across the ditch to transform the Warriors. Question is, can they beat the masters at their own game?<\/p>\n Offloads and out-of-the-box tactics have been rare cause for pause in the Panthers dominance of recent years, but while the Warriors throw plenty of passes before the line (235 per game, fifth in the NRL), they rank last for offloads.<\/p>\n Addin Fonua-Blake\u2019s career-best form has made him a serious threat close to the line with eight tries while Shaun Johnson\u2019s combination with his edge-runners and sweeping backline plays are a delight to watch.<\/p>\n And yet, the prospect of a Panthers blitz thanks to their incredible line speed and precision is never far away.<\/p>\n The recent history: <\/b>Newcastle thumped Canberra on their own patch six weeks ago, and it\u2019s proven telling. The Knights have simply kept on rolling and the Raiders are an absolute lottery. There\u2019ve been plenty of points whenever these sides have come together in recent years.<\/p>\n The main man: <\/b>Kalyn Ponga. How can it not be, even with the Knights skipper likely needing painkillers to get on the field? His blistering form is the sum of both his teammates pulling in one direction and Ponga doing things only he can – to the tune of 13 try-assists, 13 line-breaks and 13 line-break assists in his last eight games.<\/p>\n The stat: <\/b>1568. Canberra\u2019s average run metres this year are better than only Canterbury, and despite aiming up against Cronulla, their yardage battles don\u2019t get any easier without Josh Papalii (arm) and Corey Horsburgh (suspension). Their depth in the middle is under extreme pressure and Joe Tapine is looking at a long stint up front.<\/p>\n The breakdown: <\/b>Newcastle\u2019s left edge is in spectacular form, with Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew (23 line breaks since round 18 if you don\u2019t mind) unrecognisable from the start of the year.<\/p>\n Bradman Best has been a different beast in the back half of the year.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>NRL Photos<\/cite><\/p>\n Canberra have had major issues on the opposite side of the field, with Ricky Stuart shuffling Jack Wighton between centre and five-eighth to try and shore up their defence for middling results.<\/p>\n Dom Young and Marzhew are great assets coming out of trouble but it\u2019s Newcastle\u2019s discipline – 5.1 penalties conceded per game (second fewest) and 31.8 missed tackles (fourth fewest) that is setting Adam O\u2019Brien\u2019s side up.<\/p>\n The Raiders\u2019 biggest strength is often a wildcard – Jamal Fogarty\u2019s try-assists from kicks rank among the most of any playmaker in the game while Hudson Young continues that Canberra tradition of one-on-one steals that can turn a game on its head.<\/p>\n The recent history: <\/b>Sam Walker was the casualty of a 22-12 Roosters loss in round 7 when an 88 per cent completion rate translated into only a stunted, pedestrian attack. That was Cronulla\u2019s first win over Craig Fitzgibbon\u2019s old outfit in eight attempts.<\/p>\n The main man: <\/b>James Tedesco. Has been back close to his best form in the past six weeks by doing less, touching the ball on average four times less a game than earlier in the year. Tedesco\u2019s effort and competitiveness is never in question, but the less-is-more approach, with him swinging wider and attacking opposition back-rower\u2019s key to the Roosters\u2019 offensive overhaul.<\/p>\n The stat: <\/b>202 – Nicho Hynes\u2019 line engagements this year – the most of any player. Hynes is the key to Cronulla\u2019s up-tempo attack and more than most sides, the Sharks play what they see rather than what they premeditate – hence Hynes consistently going to the line.<\/p>\n A while between drinks: Sam Walker and Luke Keary are back together at the Roosters scrumbase.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>NRL Photos<\/cite><\/p>\n The breakdown: <\/b>The Roosters have shifted away from Victor Radley\u2019s link-man role at lock and emphasised the on-ball playing styles of Walker and Luke Keary, Walker especially thriving since returning to the side.<\/p>\n Provided the likes of Joseph Suaalii and Tedesco produce coming out of trouble and the absence of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is covered, it\u2019s a style that will only make them more dangerous as the finals wear on.<\/p>\n Cronulla\u2019s big test is on the edges, where they have been suspect in defence and Billy Smith and Joey Manu (if fit) loom ominously. The Sharks have got plenty out of their bench in recent times too, while Braydon Trindall is proving himself a first-choice half with a knack for booting 40-20s. He has three (equal second in the NRL) from just 11 games this year.<\/p>\n Stream the NRL Premiership 2023 live and free on <\/b>9Now<\/b>. <\/b><\/p>\n Sports news, results and expert commentary. <\/i><\/b>Sign up for our Sport newsletter<\/i><\/b>.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\nPanthers v Warriors<\/b><\/h3>\n
Knights v Raiders<\/b><\/h3>\n
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Sharks v Roosters<\/b><\/h3>\n
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