Everton have been handed a whopping 10-point deduction by the Premier League, seeing Sean Dyche's side drop to 19th in the table.
After Everton were referred by the Premier League to an independent commission in March, the Toffees have now been found guilty of breaching the Premier League's profit and sustainability rules. The Toffees recorded a £371.8m loss over the previous three years, way over the £105m loss limit for a three-year period.
The point deduction comes into effect immediately, meaning Everton will drop from 14th to 19th in the Premier League, leaving Dyche's side with just four points after 12 games, but just two points off safety. The Toffees had picked up four wins and one draw in their last seven league games before the points deduction.
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Everton will appeal the deduction, with the Merseyside club releasing the following statement: "Everton Football Club is both shocked and disappointed by the ruling of the Premier League’s Commission. The Club believes that the Commission has imposed a wholly disproportionate and unjust sporting sanction.
"The Club has already communicated its intention to appeal the decision to the Premier League. The appeal process will now commence and the Club’s case will be heard by an Appeal Board appointed pursuant to the Premier League’s rules in due course."
So, can Everton bounce back from the 10-point deduction and secure Premier League safety? We used Football Manager 2024 to simulate the season and find out.
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Everton's 2023/24 season simulated with a points deduction
To complete this simulation, we updated the Premier League with the latest results, all the squads with the latest injuries and suspensions, and then handed Everton their 10-point deduction, moving the Toffees down to 19th. We then simulated until June 1, 2024, and these were the results.
In the seven games following the points deduction, Everton struggled to find points in the Premier League, losing four and drawing three, leaving them on just seven points after 19 games. Luckily for the Toffees, Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United and Fulham were performing just as badly, meaning Dyche's side remained close to safety.
Four wins in a row followed by two draws saw Everton go six unbeaten after the new year and shoot out of the relegation zone, but the Toffees then struggled for wins over the remainder of the season, winning just two games in that time. At the end of the season, Everton had picked up 10 wins, 12 draws and 16 defeats to end the campaign with 32 points, meaning they finished one point above the relegation zone and remained in the Premier League.
Fulham finished below Everton on goal difference in 17th, while Luton, Sheffield United and Burnley were relegated to the Championship, with the latter finishing just one point behind the Toffees. Dominic Calvert-Lewin starred for Dyche's side in the second half of the season, with the Englishman ending the league campaign on 16 goals.
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The best result of the season saw Everton beat Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge in April, while the biggest defeat came at home to Manchester City, losing 4-0.
Overall, FM24 predicts that Everton could stay up by the skin of their teeth, surviving the drop by just one point. A poor run of results following the deduction saw the Toffees make it an even tougher challenge for themselves, but Dyche's side had Calvert-Lewin to thank, with the striker scoring plenty of important goals to keep Everton in the top division for another season.
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