Broncos scouting report: Denver matchups vs. Bears, predictions

Broncos (0-3) at Bears (0-3)

When: 11 a.m. Sunday

Where: Soldier Field

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS

Broncos-Bears series: The Broncos are 8-8 in 16 regular-season games dating back to 1971; the Broncos lost 16-14 in the last meeting, on Sept. 15, 2019, and have split the last four matchups.

In the spotlight

The Broncos would be happy to stop talking about last week’s horrific loss to the Miami Dolphins. However, the past is the only way to dissect Denver’s poor tackling — a chronic issue this season.

In the 70-20 loss, the Broncos struggled to bring anyone down. With 38 seconds left in the third quarter, running back Raheem Mostert caught a screen pass before running down the field. Rookie linebacker Drew Sanders dived to stop him, but he was unsuccessful. As Mostert approached the end zone, he snatched defensive back Essang Bassey’s ankle and then scored to take a 49-13 lead.

Those were two of 24 missed tackles against Miami for the Broncos, who allowed 221 rushing yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus. It was evident that the Broncos were overwhelmed by Miami’s speed all afternoon, something that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph readily admitted this week.

“You can’t simulate that speed,” Joseph said.

But Denver’s tackling issues were noticeable before the nightmare in South Beach. The Broncos have 43 missed tackles through three games, including 11 against the Washington Commanders in Week 2.

Broncos safety Justin Simmons said it’s hard to simulate tackles in practice, but they can work on everything up to the point of contact.

“You can run to the ball, get low pad level (and) be in a good position to be able to finish,” said Simmons, who missed last week’s game with a hip injury. “That’s something that needs to be emphasized.”

Inside linebacker Alex Singleton said the league is too good to make one-on-one tackles. “(It’s) about 11 guys getting there,” he added. “If one guy does miss, we got three or four guys right behind him.”

Denver needs to put away its tackling woes Sunday. Even though the Bears are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, starting quarterback Justin Fields can still burn the Broncos with his legs.

Last season, Fields ran for 1,143 yards and had 728 rushing yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus. Fields hasn’t started the season on the right foot, throwing for 526 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions. Still, the Broncos understand how dangerous the Ohio State product can be with his speed and athleticism.

“As a runner, he’s dynamic,” Joseph said. “He can break tackles, he’s not sliding, and he can make you miss. He’s a challenge to rush four and hope you can contain him or rush five, and he can make every throw. It’s a cat-and-mouse game, but he’s a gifted player. It’ll be a challenge to get him stopped.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run

Against Miami, Denver totaled 69 rushing yards on 20 carries while averaging 3.5 yards per attempt. Then again, it’s hard to establish a run game when trailing by a zillion points. Running back Samaje Perine has four carries for 13 yards in the last two games after totaling 41 rushing yards on eight attempts in the season opener against the Raiders. The Bears haven’t been great at stopping the run, allowing 121.7 rushing yards per game. Edge: Even 

When Broncos pass

Through three games, it’s safe to say quarterback Russell Wilson is the least of Denver’s issues. That could change, but for now, he has been one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league. He has thrown for 791 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. He and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes have the same passer rating (99.5). Chicago’s pass defense is just as bad as Denver’s, so Wilson has a chance to put up big numbers. Edge: Broncos

When Bears run

Fields leads Chicago with 109 rushing yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. Denver’s run defense was dreadful against the Dolphins, allowing 350 yards on the ground. But the Bears are not Miami. The Broncos should have extra motivation to put together a better performance. Edge: Broncos

When Bears pass

While Wilson has shown improvements, Fields has taken a step back after a promising 2022 season, as he ranks 31st in the league in passer rating (67.7). Chicago has allowed the second-most sacks (13). The Broncos have struggled to get to the backfield, recording four sacks through three games, while opposing quarterbacks have a 133.6 rating against them. Edge: Broncos

Special teams

Broncos rookie Marvin Mims Jr. is the truth. This season, Mims has a 45-yard punt return and a 99-yard kick return for a touchdown. He is second in the league in kick return yards with 176. Chicago is last in punt return yards with 16 on two attempts and ninth in kick return yards (84). Edge: Broncos

Coaching

Payton and Bears head coach Mike Eberflus have plenty of dirt to clean up, as both teams have been a hot mess. The Broncos have hit rock bottom as a defense after the bloodbath in Week 3. At least Payton has Denver’s offense moving in the right direction. Chicago, on the other hand, is averaging 15.7 points per game. Edge: Broncos 

Tale of the tape

	Broncos	Bears
Total offense	340.6 (15th)	250 (29th)
Rush offense	95 (20th)	101.7 (17th)
Pass offense	245.7 (8th)	148.3 (31st)
Points per game	23 (17th)	15.7 (27th)
Run defense	177.7 (32nd)	121.7 (20th)
Pass defense	280.7 (29th)	285.7 (30th)
Points allowed	40.7 (32nd)	35.3 (31st)

* Stats through Week 3

By the numbers

11: True road games the Broncos have lost in a row. Denver’s win over Jacksonville in 2022 was in London. The last time the Broncos won a road game on U.S. soil was Nov. 7, 2021, at Dallas.

155.8: Wilson’s passer rating when he throws to Mims.

7: Wins Payton has against the Chicago Bears as a coach.

0: Rushing touchdowns the Broncos have in the second half.

Bet on it

Line: Broncos -3.5

Sunday is a perfect opportunity for the Broncos to get in the win column. Although their defense has been terrible, the Broncos have enough to work with on offense to beat the struggling Bears. If Denver loses, it will sting as bad as losing to the Dolphins by 50.

Prop bet: Over/under 45.5

Take the under. Chicago’s defense has been bad, but the Broncos have yet to prove they can score points in the second half.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 35, Bears 17

Would it be more interesting if Denver loses and goes to 0-4? Oh yeah. But the thing about getting embarrassed early in the season is most pro teams, even bad ones, will come back with some juice the next week. A Bears scout in the postgame elevator in Miami shook his head and said, “Well, we’re going to get their best shot next week.” Might be out on a limb, but that’s the bet here.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 24, Bears 16

The Broncos are motivated after last week’s horror show. They will finally get in the win column and ease the “Tank for Caleb Williams” discussion for another week. Still, it’s the Broncos, so don’t expect this to be an easy win.

Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 24, Bears 23

The loser of the Titanic Tilt drops to 0-4, sinks to the bottom of the league standings and firmly establishes itself as an early leader in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes in the NFL draft. Is that enough motivation to root for the Bears in this game, Broncos Country?

Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 30, Bears 20

The best thing for this franchise would be to cinch rock bottom, to lose to the silly, sorry Bears, and lock down an inside track for the No. 1 pick. But because these are the Broncos, they’ll come out hopping mad, play their best game of the season, kick the Monsters of the Midway around, and eventually use a lot of clips from Week 4 on the season-ending highlight reel to justify the glory of finishing 6-11.

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• 2023
• September
• 29

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