Broncos scouting report: How Denver matches up against Dolphins and predictions

Broncos (0-2) at Dolphins (2-0)

When: 11 a.m. MT, Sunday

Where: Hard Rock Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS

Broncos-Dolphins series: The Broncos are 6-12-1 in 20 regular-season games dating back to 1966; the Broncos won 20-13 in the last meeting, on Nov. 20, 2020, and have won three of the last four matchups.

In the Spotlight

It was the second quarter of the Miami Dolphins’ season-opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. Miami’s offense faced a first-and-10 from its 23-yard line when star wide receiver Tyreek Hill squatted at the line of scrimmage. Just before the ball was snapped, Hill motioned out before cutting across the middle to make a 29-yard reception.

Through two weeks, the Dolphins have lined Hill up in unorthodox spots in their offensive formations. The 7-time Pro Bowler was already a threat with his cheetah-like speed. But this will make it even harder for the Broncos to defend him on Sunday afternoon.

“It puts a lot more on our plate than (Hill) just lining up (on the outside),” Denver linebacker Alex Singleton said. “With a guy like that, if you hide him behind the (offensive) tackle, you might not be able to see him.”

Against the New England Patriots in Week 2, there was another instance when the Dolphins had Hill creeping behind the line of scrimmage before motioning out. That time, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw a screen pass to wide receiver Jaylen Waddle for a 28-yard gain.

The Dolphins’ exit motion also has been used by the San Francisco 49ers. In the win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, running back Christian McCaffrey was in the slot when he motioned left before quarterback Brock Purdy threw across the middle to tight end George Kittle for a 12-yard completion in the second quarter. In the fourth, wide receiver Deebo Samuel motioned left and made a 23-yard reception in the middle of the field.

“The game is evolving so much that teams are moving guys (around),” Singleton said. “If you just line them up in one spot, everyone is going to double (team).”

The Broncos know they will have their hands full with Hill, who was third in the league in receiving yards after two weeks with 255. Cornerback Pat Surtain II said Hill has a unique skillset while praising the Dolphins for motioning him around the field to confuse the defense.

When Broncos head coach Sean Payton watched the Dolphins-Patriots game, he was impressed by Hill’s strength when he sealed off the edge with a block that allowed running back Raheem Mostert to run for a nice gain.

“(The Dolphins) hide the split motion and snap the ball, and (Hill) blocks the defensive end on a crack. It was textbook,” Payton said. “The guy he blocked probably was 250 pounds. It would be like him blocking one of our outside linebackers. He’s strong.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run

In Week 1, Denver’s run game showed positive signs, splitting carries between running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. However, in the loss to the Washington Commanders, Williams only had 44 rushing yards on 12 carries, while Perine was limited to one attempt. Miami is ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed (160.5 per game) but did a solid job containing the run against New England, holding the Patriots to 88 rushing yards and 3.5 yards per carry. Edge: Dolphins

When Broncos pass

Despite Denver’s dreadful start to the season, quarterback Russell Wilson has statistically been one of the best passers in the league. He had the fourth-best passer rating (108.5) through two weeks and ranked third in touchdown passes with five. Wilson didn’t reach that total until Week 6 of last season. The Dolphins had four sacks and eight quarterback hits against New England. Denver’s old friend, Bradley Chubb, recorded seven tackles, a sack, two quarterback hits and a forced fumble. This season, seven of Miami’s 13 quarterback pressures have been sacks. That could be a problem for a Broncos offensive line that just gave up seven sacks last Sunday. Edge: Even 

When Dolphins run

Raheem Mostert has three touchdowns and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry through two games. He rushed for 37 yards in the season-opening win over the Chargers before carrying the ball 18 times for 121 yards and two touchdowns last week. Denver’s tackling was a major issue against Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr., who rushed for 87 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries.  Edge: Dolphins

When Dolphins pass

Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in passing yards with 715. The Broncos struggled with defending screen passes in last week’s loss against the Washington Commanders. With Tagovailoa’s quick release and speed at wide receiver, the Dolphins could do the same. Edge: Dolphins 

Special teams

Denver’s special teams seemed to be the only thing Payton was pleased about after the loss to Washington. Kicker Wil Lutz went 2 for 2 on field goal attempts. Rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. had a 45-yard punt return. Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders is 4 for 6 on field goal attempts. Wide receiver Braxton Berrios has averaged 13.5 yards on two punt returns. He hasn’t returned a kickoff yet, but the Pro Bowler averaged 23.1 yards per attempt in 2022 with the Jets. Edge: Dolphins

Coaching

The Sean Payton experience has had its fair share of growing pains. The Broncos have lost two straight winnable games, they struggle to maintain momentum in the second half, and Payton has been forced to reduce the verbiage on offensive play calls so that they can get in and out of huddles better. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s reunion hasn’t gone as planned. Denver is tied for 30th in the league in expected points added per play, an efficiency metric, according to Sumer Sports data. Under head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have the league’s best offense. Edge: Dolphins

Tale of the tape

	Broncos (rank)	Dolphins (rank)
Total offense	329.5 (16th)	462.5 (1st)
Rush offense	108 (15th)	107.5 (16th)
Pass offense	221.5 (12th)	355 (1st)
Points per game	24.5 (15th)	30 (4th)
Total defense	324.5 (16th)	360.5 (24th)
Run defense	91.5 (11th)	160.5 (28th)
Pass defense	233 (21st)	200 (14th)
Points allowed	26 (23rd)	25.5 (22nd)

*Stats through Week 2

By the numbers

3: Average number of points the Broncos have scored per drive this season, ranking first in the NFL despite being 31st in drives with 17.

168: All-purpose yards Mims had in last week’s loss to Washington. It’s the most all-purpose yards by a Bronco in a single game since Javonte Williams’ 178 in 2021 against Kansas City.

10: Quarterback pressures the defense has totaled through two games. The Broncos are ranked 30th in the league in that category.

492: Receiving yards Hill has in 11 career games against the Broncos.

Bet on it

Line: Dolphins -6.5

The outcome of Sunday’s game seems crystal clear. Miami will jump out to a huge lead. The Broncos will overcome their second-half woes and make things interesting down the stretch. But it won’t be enough to pull off the upset.

Prop bet: Over/under 48

Please take the over. Through two games, Denver’s defense hasn’t shown it’s capable of slowing down the Dolphins’ explosive offense.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Dolphins 30, Broncos 21

Denver’s got faith that its season is going to turn for the better. But this weekend? Against this offense? In South Florida? Mike McDaniel’s joking this week about how Miami in September made for a home-field advantage even “pre-global warming.” Now, the Broncos will have to try not to melt down before getting back to autumn at 0-3.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Dolphins 34, Broncos 26

It’s still too early to completely write off the Broncos. But they are not making that turnaround against the Dolphins. Wilson will continue to look solid but Denver’s defense will not be able to contain Miami’s offense for an entire game.

Mark Kiszla, columnist: Dolphins 27, Broncos 24

The “D” in Denver stands for desperation. And that might be what the 0-2 Broncos have going for them in this trip to muggy Florida, where the heat will be on the defensive coordinator to slow down Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill. Good luck with that.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Dolphins 27, Broncos 17

It took, what, two games for George Paton’s depth chart to fail the stress test? A lost September already feels like a gray November in Broncos Country, for all the wrong reasons. Wishing Justin Simmons a speedy recovery, because teams are going to be asking for him at the trade deadline. And because 31 deserves better than this.

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