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It’s the grand final that simply had to happen in 2023.
Penrith are the only team this year with the defence to contain Brisbane’s freewheeling attack at its best. In turn, the Broncos are the only outfit that can truly trouble the Panthers and go the distance at the same time.
Ivan Cleary’s side come into their fourth-straight grand final in scintillating touch after winning 11 of their last 12 games with only Taylan May unavailable. One more win and they’re throwing down serious claims as the best team this side of St George more than half a century ago.
Brisbane, meanwhile, bear more than a passing resemblance to Penrith four years ago. Strong, fast, brash and largely homegrown, and back from the depths. On Sunday, the grand final we had to have arrives – here’s how it will be won and lost.
The recent history: One-apiece in 2023 in two low-scoring slugfests. Brisbane jagged a round one boilover in Penrith, prevailing despite the premiers running for 427 metres more and enjoying 49 tackles inside the Broncos’ 20-metre red zone. When they met again at Suncorp in mid-May, Brisbane were without Adam Reynolds and Penrith were dispelling any doubts about their bid for a three-peat with a clinical 15-4 win.
The stat: 23. Brisbane’s offload tally against the Warriors. Kevin Walters was foxing afterwards when he claimed the Broncos are not “a team known for doing that”. Brisbane’s 10.9 offloads a game are the third most of any side in 2023.
Payne Haas on the charge against the Warriors at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday.Credit: Getty
Still, they doubled their second-phase play to unpick a strong Warriors defence – the same blueprint Parramatta have used to good effect in recent years against the Panthers. All seven of the Broncos’ preliminary final tries featured an offload leading up to points but the true key was their 82-per-cent completion rate. Not many teams can give the ball air while hanging onto it.
The main man: Reece Walsh. On both sides of the ball, the No.1 is numero uno. For Brisbane, his speed and injection both around the ruck and on the edge is the biggest point of difference, especially given Izack Tago’s pec issue seemed to limit him when Justin Olam breezed through for one of Melbourne’s few moments of joy last Friday.
Walsh favours a swing to the right more often than not, but Herbie Farnworth and Ezra Mam are no strangers to Walsh’s incisions on the left either.
For Penrith, sliding or rushing on Walsh will be the balance their five-star defence has to strike whenever Brisbane push past their own 40-metre line. Walsh’s own kick defence held up under Cleary’s examination in Origin. But Penrith are their own beast again, and Cleary will have noted Walsh defends in Brisbane’s line more than most fullbacks, and punt accordingly.
The breakdown: For all the deserved focus on Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan as two of the game’s best middle forwards, nowhere near enough credit is given to James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota for their opening 20 minutes in last year’s grand final.
Parramatta pair Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard came into that contest in career-best form. Leota and Fisher-Harris bashed them, before Isaah Yeo marshalled Penrith’s middle third superbly.
If Brisbane are getting driven backwards, look for Adam Reynolds to swing wide early in the tackle count. Farnworth and Kotoni Staggs have been strong in exactly that situation all year, and Walsh’s speed can give them time and space anywhere on the paddock. Expect Jarome Luai’s shoulder to go under the microscope again opposite Staggs.
Penrith have their own edge strike weapons in Stephen Crichton and Liam Martin, whose running off Cleary is among the best in the NRL.
Both Reynolds and Cleary have the kicking nous to turn a contest around if they’re pinned in their own end. And if defences rush outside-in, they’ve also perfected crossfield kicks for Selwyn Cobbo and Brian To’o respectively.
Penrith hold the advantage though at the start of sets with Dylan Edwards, Sunia Turuva and To’o. Brisbane have the fitness and athleticism to go with Penrith, even if the premiers have more impact off the bench and Spencer Leniu’s leg speed.
Jack Cogger’s likely retention as cover for Luai does effectively leave them playing with 16 men, however.
If the Broncos come with something different, and that something different – be it offloads, early shifts or scrum moves – sticks, it’s down to the individual game breakers.
Walsh, Cleary, Edwards, Reynolds, Staggs, Crichton … take your pick.
Or just sit back and enjoy.
Everything you need to know about the 2023 NRL grand final
When does it start?
Sydney and Melbourne: 7.30pm AEDT
Queensland: 6.30pm AEST
South Australia: 7.00pm ACDT
Western Australia: 4.30pm AWST
Northern Territory: 6.00pm ACST
Ticket sales and how to watch
Tickets on sale at https://www.nrl.com/tickets/2023-nrl-telstra-premiership-grand-final/
TV broadcast
The big day will be shown on Nine and 9Now, starting with the Sunday Footy Show at 11am and continuing into the night.
Grand Final Day schedule
Gates open: 1pm
NRL State Championship – Brisbane Tigers v South Sydney: 1.20pm
NRLW grand final – Newcastle v Gold Coast: 3.55pm
NRL grand final – Penrith v Brisbane: 7.30pm
Pre-game entertainment
Special performance from Tina – The Tina Turner Musical and ARIA Award-winners King Stingray.
Odds
Penrith $1.65, Brisbane $2.25 (Sportsbet)
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