Save articles for later
Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time.
Collingwood held top spot on the ladder for almost the entire season, finishing minor premiers, while the Brisbane Lions steadily closed the gap to eventually finish runners-up.
On Saturday, natural justice has been served, with the two teams playing off in the big dance for the biggest prize.
The battle for the 2023 AFL premiership: Brisbane Lions co-captain Lachie Neale and Collingwood skipper Darcy Moore.Credit: Stephen Kiprillis
The Lions have had the easier passage into the grand final, while the Magpies have ground out narrow wins against Melbourne and GWS.
Can Collingwood hang on, or will the Lions finally run over the top of them?
Last time they played
Round 23: Brisbane Lions 19.10 (124) d Collingwood 15.10 (100) at Marvel Stadium.
Will Collingwood bottle the game up?
This Collingwood team forged its reputation in late 2022 and most of 2023 playing football that could induce whiplash, based on lightning rebound from half-back. Lately, though – as the competition has caught up, and with Nick Daicos out for six weeks – they’ve looked more like the Sydney Swans under Paul Roos, grinding out close wins with highly contested play.
The Lions, conversely, are used to playing fast and loose football on fast tracks, and Saturday will be hot and dry. Heat won’t bother the Brisbane Lions, but will the Magpies force them into a war of attrition? If that’s the case, expect the power runners from both teams – Collingwood’s Steele Sidebottom and Jack Crisp, the Lions’ Hugh McCluggage and Jarrod Berry – to exert more influence in the second half.
If it’s close, Collingwood have shown over and over again they can defend a narrow lead to the death, or score quickly if required.
Can the Lions break their MCG hoodoo?
On paper, the numbers don’t look good: the Lions have won at the MCG just once in their last 15 outings, going back to 2014. But let’s keep that in perspective. The Lions don’t get many opportunities to play at the home of football, and their last victory there was massive, defeating Melbourne by 13 points in last year’s semi-final.
The Lions have been on the verge since 2019. They’re older, smarter, better balanced and have had the rails run this September. They’re also not facing the intimidating pro-Collingwood crowd they would have encountered if they’d met the Magpies at the MCG in a preliminary final.
In short, they’ve never been better placed. If they go down, the venue should have nothing to do with it.
Can the Magpies break their Lions curse?
Collingwood’s 2002 and 2003 grand final defeats are ancient history. But since 2019, the Lions have also won their last six meetings with the Magpies, most recently in round 23 at Marvel Stadium.
That game was a shootout, with Brisbane prevailing by four goals against a team missing Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey and Bobby Hill: Collingwood’s three best players, plus a very good one. That match was also close to a dead rubber for the Pies, who had already all but locked away top spot on the ladder.
If De Goey plays out of his skin, as he did against GWS, and Nick Daicos can improve on his slightly rusty but still very effective showing, Collingwood can write a new chapter in history between these old rivals.
Will Billy Frampton come alive?
Collingwood’s recall of Billy Frampton – brought in to maintain the forward structure provided by Dan McStay, out with a knee injury – is the biggest and bravest selection decision of the grand final. Frampton was recruited in the off-season largely to add depth to the Magpies’ key defensive stocks. That decision proved astute when Jeremy Howe badly broke an arm in round one, then both rucks Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox were injured.
Frampton is no world-beater, but he is versatile. He is not as good overhead as McStay, but if he can bring the ball to ground – and keep gun Lions defender Harris Andrews honest – then he’s done his job. Any goals are a bonus.
If Andrews dictates play from centre half-back, the Lions already have a hand on the cup, in which case Howe may switch forward, as happened in round 23.
WWCCD? (What will Charlie Cameron do?)
For Collingwood, this looms as one of the biggest questions (and headaches) of all. Cameron is a gold-class matchwinner. His radar was off against Carlton last week, kicking 1.3, but he’s torched the Magpies in two meetings this year, kicking 10.1 across both games.
Will Isaac Quaynor be handed the job of containing Lions champion Charlie Cameron?Credit: AFL Photos
Who plays on him? Isaac Quaynor – renowned for his one-on-one strength – is the obvious choice but Cameron’s gotten hold of him before. Cameron is lethal with the ball out the back, has everyone covered for speed on the lead, and can conjure goals out of thin air when the orthodox is impossible.
If he finds enough space, he is the most likely small forward to win a Norm Smith Medal since Cyril Rioli in 2015.
Prediction: Collingwood by five points.
Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.
Most Viewed in Sport
From our partners
Source: Read Full Article
