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It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
And with superstars wherever you look, Penrith in ominous touch and Brisbane leading a chasing pack that’s closing fast, we run through each week one finals clash and look at where the biggest contests of the year will be won and lost.
Broncos v Storm
The recent history: Ignore the latest edition – even if last Friday’s 32-22 Storm win was more entertaining than any game missing 20 front-line players should be. But there’s no escaping Melbourne’s dominance over the club they first modelled themselves on. Not since 2009 have the Victorians lost at Suncorp Stadium. More recently, Melbourne have won their last 14 games against Brisbane, and posted at least 40 points in five of the last seven clashes.
The main man: Jahrome Hughes. Criminally underrated and a huge blow if that knee issue is worse than first feared and keeps him out this week. A match-winning performance against Brisbane in May was described by Craig Bellamy as “one of his best ever” and triggered a run of 20 try-assists in 13 games for the Kiwi star. Hughes is developing that most treasured of playmaking qualities – turning it on when his forwards are struggling.
Jahrome Hughes: one of the best halves in the game, but seldom spoken of in such terms.Credit: Getty
The stat: 72. The combined offloads of Payne Haas (42) and Patrick Carrigan (30) this season – more than double any previous year they’ve played together. Haas’s newfound ball-playing has added another point of attack to Brisbane’s game, especially as contests wear on and defenders tire.
The breakdown: More than any other final, this one will be won between the ears given the Storm’s stranglehold on Brisbane and big-game experience against a young side. Aside from Adam Reynolds and Kurt Capewell, most of the Broncos finals experience amounts to only that 58-0 thrashing from Parramatta four years ago.
Harry Grant around the ruck and Nelson Asofa-Solomona lurking on an edge have been Melbourne’s key points of difference all season. Ryan Papenhuyzen jumping into the ruck washing machine from the bench is just fruit for the sideboard.
Reynolds has the ability to keep Brisbane afloat with his kicking game if Melbourne gets on top in the middle. And then there’s Reece Walsh.
His speed at the line is unmatched, and when paired with fellow game-breakers Kotoni Staggs, Ezra Mam and Herbie Farnworth against Storm edges that have been shaky all year, any counterpunch could prove devastating.
Panthers v Warriors
The recent history: Penrith prevailed 18-6 at Magic Round, but it was one of those Warriors efforts – high, smart completion rates, dogged defence – that won admirers. Otherwise, it’s especially grim reading for the Kiwi side. They’re 0-7 against the Panthers since 2019.
The main man: Dylan Edwards. A fair argument can be made that he holds this champion Penrith side together even more than Nathan Cleary given his role as defensive coordinator, backfield impact and prowess on the right edge. Leads the NRL for run metres (4704m) and support plays (200), by almost 20 per cent more effort plays than the next best in either category.
The stat: 4.71. The difference between the 13 points Penrith concede per game, and the NRL’s next best defence – Brisbane’s 17.71. In the NRL era, there’s never been such a large gap between the two stingiest teams without the ball.
The breakdown: Andrew Webster has taken more than a hint of Penrith across the ditch to transform the Warriors. Question is, can they beat the masters at their own game?
Offloads and out-of-the-box tactics have been rare cause for pause in the Panthers dominance of recent years, but while the Warriors throw plenty of passes before the line (235 per game, fifth in the NRL), they rank last for offloads.
Addin Fonua-Blake’s career-best form has made him a serious threat close to the line with eight tries while Shaun Johnson’s combination with his edge-runners and sweeping backline plays are a delight to watch.
And yet, the prospect of a Panthers blitz thanks to their incredible line speed and precision is never far away.
Knights v Raiders
The recent history: Newcastle thumped Canberra on their own patch six weeks ago, and it’s proven telling. The Knights have simply kept on rolling and the Raiders are an absolute lottery. There’ve been plenty of points whenever these sides have come together in recent years.
The main man: Kalyn Ponga. How can it not be, even with the Knights skipper likely needing painkillers to get on the field? His blistering form is the sum of both his teammates pulling in one direction and Ponga doing things only he can – to the tune of 13 try-assists, 13 line-breaks and 13 line-break assists in his last eight games.
The stat: 1568. Canberra’s average run metres this year are better than only Canterbury, and despite aiming up against Cronulla, their yardage battles don’t get any easier without Josh Papalii (arm) and Corey Horsburgh (suspension). Their depth in the middle is under extreme pressure and Joe Tapine is looking at a long stint up front.
The breakdown: Newcastle’s left edge is in spectacular form, with Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew (23 line breaks since round 18 if you don’t mind) unrecognisable from the start of the year.
Bradman Best has been a different beast in the back half of the year.Credit: NRL Photos
Canberra have had major issues on the opposite side of the field, with Ricky Stuart shuffling Jack Wighton between centre and five-eighth to try and shore up their defence for middling results.
Dom Young and Marzhew are great assets coming out of trouble but it’s Newcastle’s discipline – 5.1 penalties conceded per game (second fewest) and 31.8 missed tackles (fourth fewest) that is setting Adam O’Brien’s side up.
The Raiders’ biggest strength is often a wildcard – Jamal Fogarty’s try-assists from kicks rank among the most of any playmaker in the game while Hudson Young continues that Canberra tradition of one-on-one steals that can turn a game on its head.
Sharks v Roosters
The recent history: Sam Walker was the casualty of a 22-12 Roosters loss in round 7 when an 88 per cent completion rate translated into only a stunted, pedestrian attack. That was Cronulla’s first win over Craig Fitzgibbon’s old outfit in eight attempts.
The main man: James Tedesco. Has been back close to his best form in the past six weeks by doing less, touching the ball on average four times less a game than earlier in the year. Tedesco’s effort and competitiveness is never in question, but the less-is-more approach, with him swinging wider and attacking opposition back-rower’s key to the Roosters’ offensive overhaul.
The stat: 202 – Nicho Hynes’ line engagements this year – the most of any player. Hynes is the key to Cronulla’s up-tempo attack and more than most sides, the Sharks play what they see rather than what they premeditate – hence Hynes consistently going to the line.
A while between drinks: Sam Walker and Luke Keary are back together at the Roosters scrumbase.Credit: NRL Photos
The breakdown: The Roosters have shifted away from Victor Radley’s link-man role at lock and emphasised the on-ball playing styles of Walker and Luke Keary, Walker especially thriving since returning to the side.
Provided the likes of Joseph Suaalii and Tedesco produce coming out of trouble and the absence of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is covered, it’s a style that will only make them more dangerous as the finals wear on.
Cronulla’s big test is on the edges, where they have been suspect in defence and Billy Smith and Joey Manu (if fit) loom ominously. The Sharks have got plenty out of their bench in recent times too, while Braydon Trindall is proving himself a first-choice half with a knack for booting 40-20s. He has three (equal second in the NRL) from just 11 games this year.
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