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Newcastle United host Manchester United on Saturday night with just one point and one place between them in the Premier League table. Their relative standings might be in close proximity, but the two clubs feel worlds apart right now – even as they share a curious overlapping in many factors this season.
Both clubs drew in midweek, in Champions League matches with a huge amount resting on the outcomes. The Magpies, of course, earned the better result but perhaps ended up feeling worse; such is the rollercoaster of emotions within football, holding Paris Saint-Germain to a 1-1 draw but conceding in the final minutes to a hotly-debated penalty.
The Red Devils, meanwhile, threw away a two-goal lead much earlier in the game and still could have won their match, eventually leaving Galatasaray with a 3-3 draw. Neither currently stand to progress in their groups, and both face an uphill battle domestically to regain a top-four place to return and try again among Europe’s elite in 2024/25.
It’s the visitors to St. James’ Park on Saturday night who seem to have a host of problems stacked against them: an underperforming, big-money goalkeeper, a manager facing increased scrutiny, a litany of off-field problems this season, an ongoing takeover moving at glacial pace and mutiny among the fanbase towards the current owners, who now look like staying in place. Against that, Newcastle as a club look cohesive and together: a coaching group who have clearly improved the squad, remaining progressive in competitive terms compared to only two years ago and gradually adding to the memorable occasions on home soil. And yet, it’s Man United who come into the game ahead in the table, United who have taken more points across the last four league fixtures and United who have a far shorter injury and absence list to contend with.
Such a convoluted mix of truths and perceptions is not uncommon, but this head-to-head in particular looks a potentially defining one in the battle for top-four places, and despite initial appearances it’s tough to go against Newcastle as being in the better frame of mind to emerge with precious points.
The team’s work rate, team chemistry and near-impeccable home form are all big factors for this fixture in isolation against Ten Hag’s team, who still appear tactically fractured and very brittle mentally when periods of matches go against them. Add in the fact they do not score a shed-load of goals – just 16 is the lowest in the Premier League’s top 12 – and that their away wins this term have all come at teams ranked 14th or lower, and it becomes even more difficult to see the Red Devils pulling off a morale-boosting victory.
Looking in more granular detail at the head-to-head battles which might shape the match actually brings up a wider-lens, longer-term rivalry: players up against each other for places in England’s Euro 2024 squad.
With Mason Mount well out of the picture for now, Man United hold perhaps three who would be seen as general certainties under Gareth Southgate: Harry Maguire, now a first-teamer again for the Red Devils; Marcus Rashford – woefully out of form and shifted to the right flank recently – and Luke Shaw, just returned from injury at left-back.
Maguire appears untouchable, in part due to a lack of elite-level alternative candidates, but arguably the same cannot be said for the other two.
Having switched wings, Rashford may in fact now be in direct confrontation with two names of interest to the Three Lions, including one player suggested in some quarters as so in-form that he cannot be continually overlooked: Anthony Gordon, Newcastle’s left-sided forward, as well as Tino Livramento, nominally a right-back but excellent on the left against PSG.
It might be fanciful to suggest Livramento might usurp a senior so quickly and outside his normal role, but with a dearth of consistently available and excellent left-back options around for Southgate, it’s not an impossibility either, particularly if he defends the way he did at Parc des Princes with regularity.
Further forward it’s a different story.
By the numbers, Rashford is still having an effect on United’s attack in terms of the basic dribbling and shooting traits he brings, but his end product has been woeful. He takes more shots than Gordon – total number and per 90 league minutes – yet fewer are on target. His decision-making can come into question at times too, with more shots blocked this term than anyone else at Man United has even attempted, excepting Bruno Fernandes. And there’s the fact he has tallied just two goals total across all competitions, one a penalty, against Gordon’s five.
The Newcastle man has found the finishing touch which had previously been conspicuously lacking, even thriving when asked to lead the line for the team – while Rashford, who has had several stints at the same job at Old Trafford, appears further away than ever at being a regular centre-forward, now even shifted away from his preferred left flank.
As considerations for the national team, they clearly overlap in plenty of attributes: ball-carriers at pace, direct runners behind the defence, hard workers defensively and a goal threat in central areas.
Form, of course, by its very nature will ebb and flow. It’s no secret which of the two is nearer their peak right now, and if April and May – a time of trophies and international selections – is a long way away, one team appears to be far better-placed to give their forward a platform to consistently succeed.
One game in isolation won’t decide the fate of these clubs, who pushes for a top-four finish or indeed who makes the final 23 for England. But if the game is decided by the in-form Gordon in particular, expect the calls for inclusion to only grow louder – and Rashford is the obvious candidate who would need to make way.
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