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The marathon that is the AFL home-and-away campaign is over, and it’s now down to what Ross Lyon says is the “real season” when an eagerly anticipated finals series begins on Thursday week.
The AFL finalised the schedule for week one of the finals early on Monday, confirming the blockbuster qualifying final between Collingwood and Melbourne would be held in the showpiece Thursday night timeslot of 7.20pm on September 7 at the MCG.
The Friday night match will be the elimination final between Carlton and Sydney.
It will also be at the MCG, as will the Saturday afternoon elimination final between St Kilda and GWS.
Brisbane will host Port Adelaide at the Gabba in the other qualifying final on the Saturday night.
We take an early look at the match-ups and where your team stands.
Expect Christian Petracca and Jordan de Goey to play key roles for their teams when Melbourne and Collingwood clash in an AFL qualifying final on Thursday September 7.Credit: Getty
Qualifying final
Collingwood v Melbourne
MCG, 7.20pm Thursday, September 7
Season results
R13: Melbourne 8.18 (66) d Collingwood 9.8 (62) at the MCG.
Injuries
Collingwood: Jamie Elliott (corked quad) was subbed off at half-time on Friday night but will be fit to play. Nick Daicos (knee) is off crutches ahead of time and has started gym and pool work but is not expected back to the second final. Skipper Darcy Moore (hamstring) and Nathan Murphy (glute) are expected to play, but Jakob Ryan (concussion) faces a fitness test.
Melbourne: Michael Hibberd is in concussion protocols. Ben Brown (knee) has also been a watch.
The verdict: This shapes as a classic. The Demons snapped the Magpies’ eight-game winning streak when they last met, on the King’s Birthday weekend.
The Magpies booted two late goals, but a Jack Viney clearance saved the day for the Demons. Bayley Fritsch booted three goals for the winners. The Magpies were back to their stingy best against an under-manned Essendon on Friday, having conceded 100 points in each of their three previous matches.
That they also booted 8.1 in the first term reinforced how potent this top-of-the-ladder side can be.
“This is a tough competition and it is so even. The margins are small. There is not a massive gap between us and others. We know that. To qualify in this position. We are proud of our efforts,” Craig McRae said.
For the Demons, there has been a late blow, with concerns Jake Melksham has torn his anterior cruciate ligament. A shift to attacking more through the corridor has rectified their scoring issues.
In Steven May and Jake Lever, they have elite marking interceptors. Viney has had a career year, while Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca are ready to deliver.
Early tip: Melbourne by two points.
Brisbane’s Joe Daniher and Port Adelaide’s Jeremy Finlayson will be targets for their team in the qualifying final at the Gabba.Credit: Getty
Qualifying final
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
The Gabba, 7.25pm, Saturday, September 9
Season results: R1 Port Adelaide 18.18 (126) d Brisbane 11.6 (72) at Adelaide Oval.
Injuries
Brisbane: Jack Gunston (knee) hopes to return later in September; Daniel Rich (hamstring) is likely to miss the qualifying final; Lincoln McCarthy (calf) should be fit.
Port Adelaide: Charlie Dixon (foot), Scott Lycett (knee) and Trent McKenzie (knee) are on target for a finals return.
The verdict: Their last contest was so long ago there is little that can be taken from it. However, the Lions will be mindful to not again concede an eight-goals-to-one third term.
Chris Fagan’s team has since transformed, booking not only a home qualifying final, but the opportunity to not have to return to Melbourne before the grand final. They have tightened defensively, led by Harris Andrews, while Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron ensure a match-winning attack, rubber-stamping Fagan’s belief this is their best chance for a flag during his tenure.
“If you finish top two you’ve had a good year … hopefully that gives us a lot of confidence,” Fagan said.
For the Power, it’s time to end their tag as finals floppers. They had a major slump through July and August, but have regained their mojo. Connor Rozee and Zak Butters shape as September stars, but they need Dixon back. While the re-signing of coach Ken Hinkley was a fillip, an early finals exit will spark more supporter agitation.
Early tip: Brisbane Lions by 11 points.
St Kilda’s Dan Butler and GWS Giants skipper Toby Greene will face-off in the AFL elimination final.Credit: Getty
Elimination final
St Kilda v Greater Western Sydney
MCG, 3.20pm, Saturday, September 9
Season results: R10: St Kilda 13.14 (92) d Greater Western Sydney 12. 8 (80) at Giants Stadium.
Injuries
St Kilda: Max King (jammed knee) was managed in round 24, but will return next week. Seb Ross (low-grade hamstring), Zak Jones (knee) and Dougal Howard (broken wrist) will need to prove their fitness. Hunter Clark (corked leg) is expected to be fit. Josh Battle has joined Anthony Caminiti in concussion protocols.
GWS: Sam Taylor (hamstring) was a late withdrawal on Sunday. Finn Callaghan (achilles) also faces a fitness test.
The verdict: The Saints have been in the top six for all but one game this season, and head into September having won four of their past six games. Under Ross Lyon, they have greater resolve defensively, while Jack Sinclair and Brad Crouch have been magnificent. But do the Saints have enough midfield quality for a deep September run?
The athletic King is the man who can drag this side to at least one win.
“I think we go in good order to whoever we play, wherever we play and we’re really looking forward to it. The real season is starting, this is just qualifying,” Lyon said.
Sinclair had 37 touches and King booted four goals when these teams last met.
For the Giants, Adam Kingsley should be commended for inspiring a side many thought was headed to the bottom rungs of the ladder.
In Toby Greene, the Giants have a man built for September. A strong defence led by Taylor, and a midfield boasting a reborn Stephen Coniglio and Tom Green, have the Giants well positioned. Can Jesse Hogan deliver a bag of goals?
Early tip: St Kilda by one point.
Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps and Sydney midfielder Errol Gulden will be elimination final opponents.Credit: Getty
Elimination final
Carlton v Sydney
MCG, 7.50pm, Friday, September 8
Season results: R11: Sydney 11.11 (77) d Carlton 6.15 (51) at the SCG.
Injuries
Sydney: Tom Papley (hamstring) and Justin McInerney (calf) face fitness tests.
Carlton: Patrick Cripps missed the Giants clash because of an undisclosed injury, but is expected to return next week. Blake Acres (shoulder) was subbed off. Jack Silvagni is in a race to be fit after an arthroscope confirmed he does have a knee sprain. Sam Docherty (calf) will need to prove his fitness. Matt Kennedy (knee) is expected to be fit.
The verdict: The Blues may have had their nine-game winning streak curbed, but there is a lot to like. They boast an elite defence, while a more direct style of play has transformed their attack, allowing Charlie Curnow to flourish.
For Cripps, it’s finally a chance to forge an imprint in September, the first finals campaign of his 10-year career.
The Swans prevailed by 26 points in the lone meeting between these clubs, coming on a night of tumult for the Blues prompting frustrated board member Craig Mathieson to step down.
It was the Blues’ fourth straight loss amid a six-game skid. Times, however, have since changed.
The Swans have appeared done and dusted at times this season, but it’s no surprise they have forced their way into the finals (with some goal-umpiring help).
Errol Gulden, Luke Parker, Nick Blakey, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner are among those who have had strong seasons. There is no Buddy, but it’s worth remembering he wasn’t a force in last year’s campaign.
Early tip: Carlton by five points.
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