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The top eight won’t be decided until the very last whistle of the regular season, but it will be the resurgence of Brisbane as an NRL powerhouse that dictates the finals fortunes of several rivals.
Twenty-four hours before the Roosters and Rabbitohs square off with seasons on the line, an under strength Broncos outfit can sew up the club’s first minor premiership in 23 years with a win over Melbourne.
Brisbane are already going to be without Adam Reynolds (calf) and Pat Carrigan (foot) for the Storm clash while Kotoni Staggs is likely to join them on the stands through suspension, but a victory on Thursday would put a first-place finish beyond Penrith’s reach.
Which is where it gets interesting, and brings the ninth-placed Cowboys into play.
If the Panthers can’t play for a minor premiership, several stars are unlikely to play – Dylan Edwards, Isaiah Yeo and Liam Martin among them – and North Queensland are suddenly looking good for an upset out west.
Along with the Roosters and Rabbitohs on Friday night, it’s sudden-death stakes for the Cowboys either way. And after all that, there’s Ricky Stuart’s Raiders.
They get to watch the entire round play out before Sunday afternoon’s clash against Cronulla – with must-win stakes a distinct possibility come that final whistle too. So without further ado, here is every single top-eight scenario in play in round 27.
Splitting the top-eight atom: every club’s best and worst-case scenario
1. Broncos (42, +224)
Best finish: 1st
Worst finish: 2nd
Reece Walsh and the Broncos have top spot in sight.Credit: Getty
The simplest equation of them all. Win against Melbourne and the J.J. Giltinan Shield is heading to Red Hill. Lose and Penrith still get a crack at keeping it, but the Broncos have still earned a guaranteed home final and second chance once the post-season starts.
2. Panthers (40, +315)
Best finish: 1st
Worst finish: 3rd
Penrith’s peerless points differential has them still in the minor premiership race if Brisbane stumble on Thursday. And even if first place is taken off the table, it would still take a 153-point swing on for and against for the Warriors to sneak ahead of them into the top two.
3. Warriors (38, +148)
Best finish: 2nd
Worst finish: 4th
The Warriors will need a miracle to shift Penrith from a second-place finish. And it would be a proper rugby league upset for them to cough up third spot by going down to the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday. If Melbourne fall a few days earlier, it won’t matter anyway.
4. Storm (36, +158)
Best finish: 3rd
Worst finish: 4th
Home and hosed for the top four. Melbourne do love a trip to Suncorp and have one of the best head-to-head records of any team against Brisbane. Knocking off the front-running Broncos opens up a climb into third place, but this still requires a Warriors loss to finish the year.
5. Knights (33, +155)
Best finish: 5th
Worst finish: 6th
Flying into the finals but won’t have much to play for next week. They can’t make the top four and have already sewn up a home final. Even if they lose to the Dragons, the lowest Newcastle will finish is sixth given the Sharks and Raiders play each other. Maybe a week for Adam O’Brien to rest his stars?
6. Sharks (32, +104)
Cronulla will be sweating on Nicho Hynes’ availability this week.Credit: Getty
Best finish: 5th
Worst finish: Miss finals
Cronulla missing the finals requires Canberra rattling up a cricket score on them, the Cowboys doing the same against Penrith (we’re talking 50-point margins) and the Rabbitohs downing the Roosters. An unlikely Knights loss to the Red V would keep fifth spot in play for Cronulla. Their healthy points differential keeps them in good stead even if they lose to the Raiders and are likely hanging onto seventh spot in that scenario.
7. Raiders (32, -119)
Best finish: 5th
Worst finish: Miss finals
Canberra’s finals spot will be sealed if the Cowboys can’t beat the Panthers. But the pressure ramps up if North Queensland prevail; the Raiders will need at least a draw against Cronulla to make the eight due to their poor points differential. In the unlikely event the Dragons beat the Knights, they can still finish as high as fifth with a win over the Sharks.
8. Rabbitohs (30, +73)
Best finish: 7th
Worst finish: Miss finals
The most tumultuous week of Jason Demetriou’s coaching career now swings into sudden-death stakes.Credit: Kate Geraghty
The equation is simple: win and you’re basically in, lose and it’s season over. No matter what happens in any other match, South Sydney almost certainly scrapes through with victory against the Roosters. The only way they can be eliminated, even with a win over their arch rival, is if the Cowboys beat the Panthers with a winning margin which is 37 points or more greater than the Rabbitohs’ margin over the Roosters and the Raiders get at least a draw against the Sharks.
9. Cowboys (30, +36)
Best finish: 7th
Worst finish: Miss finals
Has there ever been a coach sweating on an opposition team sheet as much as Todd Payten? Regardless, the Cowboys must beat Penrith in their own backyard to stay alive. If they do, they’ll be guaranteed a top-eight spot as long as one of the following happens: the Roosters beat the Rabbitohs or Cronulla beat Canberra.
10. Roosters (30, -38)
Best finish: 7th
Worst finish: Miss finals
Who would have thought the Roosters could even be in this conversation six weeks ago? But here we are. They need a win over the Rabbitohs on Friday night; otherwise it’s all over. Even then, they still need one of the following: Panthers to beat the Cowboys or Sharks to beat the Raiders.
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